UN to Metro Manila: Ready for Big One?
Source:
By Michael Lim Ubac
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 02:34:00 06/20/2009
Filed Under: Earthquake, Disasters (general), Government, Science (general)
GENEVA?Is Metro Manila prepared for the Big One?
Arjun Kartoch, head of the Emergency Services Branch of the United Nations? Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, posed this startling question during the Tuesday taping here of the BBC show, ?World Debate,? opening discussions on the occurrence of an earthquake in the Philippines? national capital region, with projected devastating results.
According to Kartoch, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or higher on the Richter scale will hit Metro Manila. He did not say when it would happen, as science cannot yet predict the exact occurrence of earthquakes.
Hosted by Nik Gowing, the BBC debate will be broadcast on July 4 to about 80 million global viewers. It pits Kartoch with the Philippines? Sen. Loren Legarda, Guido Bertolaso, head of Italy?s Civil Protection Agency, and Edward Borodzicz, professor of risk management at Portsmouth Business School in the United Kingdom.
Millions affected
Kartoch heads the UN office assigned to mobilize and coordinate effective humanitarian action during complex emergencies and natural disasters worldwide.
He presented a simulated picture of the effects of the tragedy, which first came out in a 2004 study released by the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI).
Buildings (hospitals, schools, establishments) and residences will collapse, Kartoch said, simulating the impact of the tremor according to urban congestion, population density and buildings? quake resistance, among other variables.
He said there would be ?16,000 buildings destroyed? and ?150,000 [persons] injured.?
At this point, Gowing noted that in such a ?tragedy,? millions of residents of Metro Manila (pop.: 12 million) would be affected.
?The question is when?
Emmanuel de Guzman, the advisor for Asia-Pacific of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), told the Inquirer that Kartoch was quoting EMI, which conducted the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) in 2002-04 in collaboration with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica) and Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA).
?The big earthquake is certainly coming. The question is when. No one can tell. It can happen today, tomorrow, or next year. But certainly there will be an earthquake,? De Guzman said.
In an e-mail, Kartoch confirmed that the figures he cited were from the projected damage and casualties in the MMEIRS.
He reiterated that he did not say for sure when the quake would occur.
Marikina fault
Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum Jr. had earlier said that the Philippine government was using the earthquake strength of magnitude 7.2 from the Valley Fault System (formerly known as the Marikina Valley Fault System) ?for planning purposes? in anticipation of the big quake.
If the government fails to prepare, a quake of such magnitude will affect around 38 percent of residential buildings, 14 percent of high-rise buildings and 35 percent of public buildings in the metropolis, Solidum had said.
On July 16, 1990, a quake with a 7.8 surface-wave magnitude struck Northern Luzon, killing 1,621 people.
Preparedness
The BBC debate was conducted on the sidelines of the four-day Second Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, which started on Tuesday to assess strategies to reduce disaster losses worldwide.
Legarda was invited to join the debate as UNISDR Asia-Pacific?s regional champion for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.
Disaster risk reduction puts a premium on mitigating measures prior to the occurrence of disasters over the current emphasis on postdisaster response, such as relief and rehabilitation measures.
Kartoch asked Legarda if the Philippines was prepared for the worst.
Thank God
?Risk reduction is very good and useful, but it should not stop at the point [of disaster],? he said, adding that he wanted more spending on disaster response over risk reduction.
Legarda told Kartoch that the occurrence of a big earthquake in Metro Manila had been discussed for the last 10 years.
?Thank God the earthquake has not happened,? she said. ?[But] we are prepared for that ? to the limits of our capabilities and resources.?
She added that it would be unrealistic to relocate ?hundreds of thousands or millions of people? who could be living on the faultlines.
Investment in lives
The Marikina Valley fault system, which lies only 10 kilometers east of central Manila, indicates a recurrence interval of 200-400 years for magnitude 6-7 quakes on the fault, according to studies.
But I believe that risks can be reduced,? Legarda said. She said investing in disaster preparedness and risk reduction by building safe hospitals and other infrastructure and by conducting risk assessment studies in local government units were essential.
?Why build housing projects on earthquake faultlines ? at the foot of mountains where there could be landslides ? in coastal areas where there are rising sea levels and where there could be storm surges?? she said, adding:
?Investment in risk reduction is an investment in lives, not a cost.?
It?s everybody?s business
To prove her point, Legarda cited Albay province?s investment in mangroves and preemptive evacuation during typhoons, and China?s $3-billion investment in flood control, which had averted $12 billion in losses.
?It?s everybody?s business?international, national, local government units and communities all rolled into one. Not one sector should be [solely] responsible,? she said.
EMI had said that the seismic intensity to be generated by the West Valley Fault quake alone and the damage felt in the metropolis would vary from place to place.
Aside from an estimated death toll of up to 35,000, up to three million persons will require evacuation, it had said.
The quake is projected to cause injuries to 118,200 persons. Some 175,000 buildings will be damaged, while the pressure of collapsed buildings and the failure to rescue those trapped inside will cause most of the deaths, according to EMI.
Contingency planning
Legarda said it was not too late to make preparations.
She said this was precisely why the UNISDR was pushing for the integration of disaster risk reduction in the national, regional and local development policies and plans of countries.
Legarda, who chairs the Philippine Senate?s committee on health, said ?metrowide contingency planning? was required.
?Earthquakes do not kill, but unsafe structures do,? she said.
Legarda said she would ask the health department to check the capacity and capability of all hospitals in the metropolis.
Proactive
She said the national government, including local government units in Metro Manila, should immediately assess the structural integrity of hospitals, schools, roads, flyovers and bridges and other public infrastructure.
In addition, she raised the need for ?retrofitting or improving and strengthening the structures.?
?We should also insure these structures, so that we do not use limited resources. We know what will happen, so let?s explore transferring the risk through insurance. That?s a proactive way,? Legarda said.
She cited the case of Istanbul, Turkey, which was also predicted to be hit by a big quake and thus secured a $350-million grant from the World Bank.
?It has not happened but they?re ready. They?ve been talking about it for the last 50 years, but still they?re proactive,? Legarda said.
She said contingency planning should be up to each family, the basic unit of society.?
40 proposals on high priority
In a subsequent interview in Geneva, National Disaster Coordinating Council executive director Glenn Rabonza said the NDCC and MMDA had been acting on the 105 recommendations, or action plans, in the EMI study.
?Out of 105, 40 are high-priority,? said Rabonza, a retired major general.
He cited the training of responders, stockpiling of equipment to respond to disasters, retrofitting of buildings, and education as some of the measures being implemented.
Rabonza said MMDA Chair Bayani Fernando and the Metro Manila mayors had signed a covenant to implement the recommendations ?to make Metro Manila seismologically safe.?
Ongoing program
?That?s an ongoing program,? Rabonza said. But he said the budget for implementing the recommendations should be provided by local government units.
He added: ?We?re the only country in the world that has earthquake drills every quarter nationwide. There are many initiatives, but a lot of measures should still be done.?
